The equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean is experiencing significant cooling of sea surface temperatures, indicating that the La Niña phenomenon will continue in the coming months, with a high likelihood of persisting through the next winter, according to Arabiaweather

Understanding La Niña

La Niña is a large-scale climate phenomenon associated with periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, meaning the ocean waters are cooler than average.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 80% probability that La Niña will continue through the fall and winter of 2024/2025. However, the specific impacts on global climate cannot be guaranteed, as these predictions are based on statistical analysis of previous years when La Niña occurred. It's essential to note that these climate cycles are part of broader patterns influencing global weather systems.

Arabiaweather indicates that La Niña is statistically linked to an intensified Siberian high-pressure system over the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant during winter. In the Arab region, La Niña typically results in reduced rainfall in the eastern part, including the Levant, but leads to increased rainfall and lower temperatures in the Maghreb. Consequently, the likelihood of floods and flash floods rises in the Maghreb, while the chances of drought increase in the eastern Arab regions due to the dominance of the Siberian high-pressure system.